Editor’s note: Electronics reuse will be featured in sessions at the 2026 E-Scrap: The Longevity Conference Oct. 26-28 in New Orleans.
Apple confirmed last month that its latest series of iPhones will include a foldable option. That and other features such as enhanced video and AI enhancements have users clamoring for the latest upgrades — and the secondary market preparing for an influx of trade-ins.
The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max have seen steady sales since hitting the market last month; Apple executives touted the phones as making some of the largest yearly enhancements in performance the company’s ever seen. The phones sold more than 1.3 million units in their first few days in China alone, according to Counterpoint Research, outpacing the total sales for the first week of sales across the iPhone 17 line — Apple’s most popular product line ever — a year ago.
That’s particularly impressive since a lot of users are holding out for the iPhone Duo, Apple’s first foldable iPhone, which will be available for pre-order as of 8 a.m. EST Oct. 16. Market surveys show that roughly 14% of prospective phone buyers plan to upgrade to the Duo later this month, which would double the global foldable phone market share from 2% of all phones sold to 4%. Assurant’s most recent trade-in report offered more evidence of Apple fans holding out, as it found the ownership duration for iPhones crossed the four-year threshold last quarter for the first time ever.
A foldable iPhone has been anticipated for a while and is expected to create a ripple across the second-hand phone marketplace. Flipsy, an online pricing guide that connects phone owners with prospective buyers, has seen a notable but not massive increase so far in iPhone trade-ins, according to company founder Chris Lindgren. The company has also seen an uptick in trade-in interest as compared to when iPhone 17 launched last year.
Services like Flipsy — which caters to users who aren’t contractually obligated to turn in devices to manufacturers when upgrading — generally see the most demand in years in which phone makers introduce the most drastic year-over-year changes, he said. The last time he recalls seeing similar interest to this year is four years ago, when Apple integrated USB-C charging and dramatic chip upgrades to the iPhone 15.
But his business tends to see more trade-in interest a few months after new models are introduced, after the first wave of upgraders has done so and people who were on the fence can see what the new phones offer. He expects that wave to be significant once people see iPhone 18s in action.
“People start to feel like they’re going to be phased out,” he said. “With the push for more AI integration, there is a little bit more demand this year. (The upgrades to iPhone 18) are going to increase the amount of people wanting to sell older models as they phase out the capabilities.”
Introducing a new model invariably lowers the value of a brand’s older models. Flipsy is seeing fast depreciation of most iPhones in the weeks since Apple’s announcement. Some savvy shoppers have subsequently found a sweet spot, Lindgren said, that results in more frequent trade-ins creating more overall value.
“You can lose out on depreciation to the point you’re not ahead by upgrading,” he said. “These people who upgrade all the time are spending a lot of money, but sometimes you lose money by waiting. Not only is the phone worth less, but battery life is worse, the screen gets more chips. All these little things add up. It’s surprising.”
Data from SellCell backs that notion up. Their research earlier this year found the iPhone 17 Pro Max to be the most traded-in phone despite its recent release, a trend they attributed to minimal depreciation.
Flipsy data has proven over the years that iPhone users by far generate the most trade-in interest, Lindgren said. Trade-in volume following Apple’s release announcement every year is three to four times the volume of the next-closest brand, Samsung.
General cell phone sales echo that trend. Counterpoint Research found Samsung sales slightly eclipse iPhone sales some quarters, but Apple surges ahead in the quarters following its new releases. When Apple introduces a new phone, people buy it — the iPhone 17, for one, accounted for 6% of global new phone sales soon after its release, according to Counterpoint.
“They’re so much bigger,” Lindgren said of Apple. “Apple users really tend to love their iPhones.”
The Duo’s $2,000-plus price point hasn’t seemed to dampen enthusiasm for the new device. As it gets closer to release, Lindgren said players across the second-hand marketplace should expect a surge of devices coming their way.
Apple is “really promoting the idea of you falling behind with some of the AI stuff and integration,” he said. “That’s just another thing on top of it. Not just battery life or camera, it’s also about missing out on the new tech.”
