Amid increasing demand for beverages bottled in PET, producers can still dramatically reduce emissions, according to a new decarbonization roadmap from a leading industry group.
The most recent publication from the National Association for PET Container Resources (NAPCOR) proposes a science-based pathway to reducing the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of PET beverage bottles by more than half by 2050, using existing technologies.
The roadmap identifies several key industry levers for decarbonizing PET packaging:
- lightweighting bottles
- boosting collection rates
- increasing recycled content in new containers
- improving energy and process efficiency in resin production, preform molding and bottle blowing
Externally, it assumes a cleaner electricity grid, electrification of transport fleets and policies that support higher recycling and recycled content. The research found the largest emissions reductions resulted from lightweighting bottles and adopting renewable energy.
Adopting the levers would progress in two phases:
- Short-term (2025-2035): Deployment of proven, commercially available solutions
- Long-term (2036-2050): Scaling circular systems and low-carbon energy
While the model assumes linear adoption, real-world uptake is likely to be uneven and nonlinear, influenced by policy, market dynamics, technology readiness and investment decisions across the value chain, the study noted.
As such, following the roadmap could result in a 57% reduction in life cycle GHG emissions and a 42% reduction of total annual emissions by 2050, the authors said. While recycling rates and recycled content adoption will continue to be key contributors to long-term emissions reductions, the research found that total industry emissions would decline from about 3.3 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) to 1.9 million by 2050, even as production volumes increase.
And while 2050 seems far into the future, the analysis shows that substantial progress can happen well before that time. Under the modeled pathway, the emissions intensity of a 16.9-ounce PET water bottle system, measured per 1,000 gallons of beverage delivered, could decline by about 44% by 2035 compared with the 2023 baseline. The three carbonated soft drink bottle systems studied could achieve emissions intensity reductions of approximately 35% to 43% over the same period, the research indicated.
The first-of-its-kind study also flags additional “upside” options – using bio-based feedstocks, carbon capture, and scale-up of chemical recycling – that could drive further progress over time.
Funded by NAPCOR, independent environmental consulting firm Eastern Research Group (ERG) developed the analysis, “PET Forward: A Decarbonization Roadmap for the PET Packaging Value Chain.” In preparing the ERG research, stakeholders Alpek Polyester, Amcor, Husky Technologies, Indorama Ventures, Niagara Water, Plastipak Packaging, Southeastern Container Corporation and Western Container answered surveys about current and future plans for decarbonization.
The new research builds on NAPCOR’s 2023 comparative life cycle assessment, which said a typical PET soda bottle has less than half the total GHG footprint of an aluminum can and approximately one-fifth that of a glass bottle.
A conservative approach
The group chose the “system expansion” method to provide a more conservative life cycle analysis, said Srinivasan “Shankar” Prabhushankar, technical director at NAPCOR, in an interview with Plastics Recycling Update.
This methodology accounts for what happens at end of life and how RPET displaces material elsewhere – and can actually penalize PET if recycled content targets exceed collection rates, because the model assumes the extra PCR must come from elsewhere in the recycling system, he said.
In comparison, the more common “cut-off” approach doesn’t carry those substitution effects through the system, and would show a significantly higher reduction of 83% using the same levers the roadmap suggests, Shankar added.
Although the analysis is grounded in US production data and common American bottle formats, the decarbonization levers are globally applicable, Shankar said. “If you are going to lightweight a PET bottle, you can do it here, you can do it in China, you can do it in Vietnam – same thing,” he said, arguing that the core strategies can guide producers and policy makers alike well beyond the US market.
Deeper long-term gains depend on factors across the wider system, including reliable supplies of high-quality recycled PET, stronger collection and sorting infrastructure, recycling capacity and supportive policy.
The roadmap “is a framework for identifying where the PET industry can act today and where collaboration across the value chain will be necessary to achieve further progress,” said Dr. Mariya Absar, senior LCA expert at ERG.
“PET is already starting from a position of strength,” said Laura Stewart, executive director of NAPCOR, in a statement. She added that in addition to having a lower GHG footprint than other common beverage packaging materials, an established PET bottle-to-bottle recycling system already operates at scale. “This roadmap shows that we don’t have to choose between meeting growing consumer demand and continuing to improve environmental performance; we can do both.”
The roadmap’s decarbonization modeling follows ISO-compliant life cycle methods and was independently peer-reviewed, to provide third-party, science-based validation of the findings, Shankar said.
Reduced emissions, economic growth
The roadmap also shows that reducing emissions and supporting economic growth do not have to be competing objectives, said Stewart.
“When we collect more PET and recycle it here in the United States, we create a stronger domestic supply of valuable material for manufacturers,” she said. “Policies that improve collection and encourage investment in recycling infrastructure can help accelerate environmental progress while also strengthening American manufacturing and supply chain resilience.”
Investments needed to advance PET decarbonization also benefit US manufacturing and recycling capacity: more efficient production, expanded collection and processing, greater availability of RPET, and continued packaging innovation.
“Decarbonization depends on connecting manufacturing with the recycling system,” said Tom Busard, NAPCOR board chair, chief polymers and recycling officer for Plastipak Packaging, and president of Clean Tech, Plastipak’s recycling affiliate. “Efficiency gains matter, but deeper reductions require reliable access to high-quality recycled PET. That makes stronger collection and domestic recycling capacity essential to delivering lower-carbon packaging at scale.”
The roadmap reinforces NAPCOR’s view that PET is likely to retain a lower carbon footprint than glass, metal or other alternative packaging materials even as demand grows. According to the study, substituting PET with heavier or more energy‑intensive packaging would, in many cases, worsen climate impacts, making PET decarbonization a more effective path than wholesale material switching.
In addition, industry leaders argue that most criticism of PET focuses on litter and waste management rather than on emissions, and they frame plastic pollution as a failure of collection and recycling systems, not the material itself.
