Global recycled copper output rose sharply in January, while inventories held in major exchange warehouses climbed to their highest level in more than two decades, according to new data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Secondary refined copper production reached 445,000 metric tons in January, up from 399,000 metric tons in the same month a year earlier, according to the Lisbon-based group’s March bulletin. Output also increased from 424,000 metric tons in December. ICSG said global secondary refined production from scrap increased by 10% mainly because of growth in China, while the table accompanying the release shows a year-over-year gain of about 11.5%.
That increase in scrap-based production helped lift overall refined copper output even as primary production declined. ICSG said world refined copper production grew by about 1% in January, with primary production down 1.4% and secondary production up 11%. The group said production in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which together account for about 59% of global production, increased by a combined 5%, while refined output outside those two countries fell by about 4.5%.
At the same time, inventories expanded sharply. Copper stocks held at the London Metal Exchange, COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange totaled 1,195,072 metric tons at the end of February, the highest level since March 2003. Those stocks rose by 450,957 metric tons, or 61%, from the end of December, with gains across all three exchanges.
ICSG’s preliminary figures also pointed to a modest surplus. The group said world apparent refined copper usage rose about 2.5% in January, with Chinese apparent demand up around 1% and ex-China usage up about 4%, supported by growth in several Asian and Middle East and North Africa countries that offset weak demand in the European Union. Even so, ICSG said the world refined copper balance showed an apparent surplus of about 17,000 metric tons in January, compared with a surplus of about 60,000 metric tons in January 2025.
Prices remained elevated during that period. ICSG said the average London Metal Exchange cash price in February was US $12,967.83 per metric ton, down 0.9% from the January average of US $13,088.88 per metric ton. The group said 2026 prices had ranged from a high of US $13,844 per metric ton on Jan. 29 to a low of US $11,826 per metric ton on March 19.
In its latest directory of copper mines, smelters and refineries, the group said world mine capacity is expected to grow by about 3.6% per year from 2026 to 2030, while annual smelter capacity is projected to rise about 2.6% per year and refinery capacity about 2.2% per year.
ICSG also said interest has increased in developing secondary smelters and refineries using scrap, with projects announced or under development in the EU, India, South Korea, the United States and China. The group said recycling will need to be encouraged as a complement to primary output, while noting that some mine projects continue to face delays linked to permitting processes or ESG issues.
