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GFL raises 2026 guidance as Q2 revenue climbs 16.3%

Stefanie ValenticbyStefanie Valentic
July 30, 2026
in Recycling

Advantage Photography/shutterstock

GFL Environmental Inc. (NYSE: GFL) (TSX: GFL) reported second-quarter revenue of $1.95 billion, up 16.3% from $1.68 billion a year earlier.

The company raised its full-year 2026 guidance for the second time this year and confirmed its planned acquisition of SECURE Waste is moving through regulatory review.

“Our strong start to the year continued through the second quarter, yielding financial results ahead of expectations,” said Patrick Dovigi, GFL’s founder and CEO, on the company’s earnings call. “Our ongoing exceptional performance in the face of an uncertain broader macro environment is a testament to the effectiveness of our growth strategies and the resilience of our business model.”

The Miami Beach, Florida-based hauler, which is incorporated in Ontario and operates solid waste facilities across Canada and 18 US states, said organic growth accelerated to 6.4% in the quarter, up 180 basis points sequentially, with core pricing contributing 6.1 percentage points of that growth.

Adjusted EBITDA rose 14.8% to $591.2 million, though margin slipped slightly to 30.4% from 30.7% a year earlier. The dip was attributed to acquisition activity, commodity prices and diesel costs. Excluding those factors, GFL said underlying margin expanded by 125 basis points.

Dovigi said pricing came in ahead of the company’s internal targets for a second straight quarter, with volume also coming in ahead of expectations this quarter.

“We now have a high degree of visibility towards ending the year with pricing above 6%,” he said. “Volume was also better than expected as the rebound in winter-related volume delays and EPR benefits more than offset the impact of lower C&D-related activity and special waste volumes.”

SECURE Waste deal moves forward

Dovigi said SECURE Waste shareholders approved GFL’s proposed acquisition in May and the deal now hinges on a single remaining step. “The final step before we can close the transaction is the Competition Bureau review, which remains on track and is well advanced,” he said on the call. “We remain confident in our ability to close the acquisition by the beginning of the fourth quarter and achieve the full pro forma financial framework we previously highlighted.”

He said integration planning has only sharpened his view of the deal. “As we’ve spent more time with Allen and the whole SECURE team, we grow incrementally optimistic about the opportunities for the combined entity,” Dovigi said, referring to SECURE Energy Services CEO Allen Gransch.

Dovigi said the company’s updated guidance still excludes any contribution from SECURE. A Q4 close could push actual full-year adjusted EBITDA growth above 20%.

GFL also closed seven other acquisitions during the quarter, including waste hauler Frontier Waste Solutions and six smaller tuck-in deals, two of which were incremental to previously issued guidance.

Year to date, the hauler noted that completed acquisitions are generating an estimated $435 million to $460 million in annualized revenue. The company spent $1.34 billion on business acquisitions and investments in the quarter alone, and net leverage rose to 4.0x as of June 30, up from 3.4x at the end of 2025.

CFO Luke Pelosi said the increase was “exactly in line with the guidance we previously provided” and tied to the June issuance of $750 million in new bonds ahead of the SECURE closing, an offering he said was “significantly oversubscribed.”

Take-private interest disclosed

GFL also disclosed that it has received unsolicited preliminary expressions of interest from multiple parties about taking the company private, prompting the board to form a special committee of independent directors to oversee any resulting discussions.

Dovigi was direct about what he sees as the driver.

“When there’s a gap in share price versus intrinsic value, I think that affords others the opportunity to potentially look at a take-private transaction,” Dovigi said. “We feel slightly vindicated that all the intrinsic value we believe we’ve created has attracted others who’ve approached us about taking the company private at a materially higher number than the company is currently trading for today.”

Dovigi said he would roll his own stake into any deal rather than cash out.

“I’m not a seller at 40. I’m not a seller at 50. I’m not a seller at 60. I’m not a seller at 70, and I’d be rolling 100% of my equity into whatever is being proposed,” he said.

He framed the decision as a fork in the road: “There’s two paths. One, there’s an offer brought to shareholders, which would require a majority of the minority… The alternative is staying public as well, which, from my perspective, is a great alternative. I have no issues staying public. The real question is: would shareholders be happy with the price, and can we create significantly more value in a shorter amount of time inside a private company?”

He said the SECURE Waste deal is unaffected by the take-private talks and will proceed on its own timeline regardless of outcome.

The company cautioned in its release that there is no guarantee the expressions of interest will lead to a transaction.

By segment, the US business drove much of the quarter’s growth, with revenue up 19.7% to $1.34 billion, including a 14.1-percentage-point contribution from acquisitions. Canadian revenue rose 9.4% to $609.2 million, with organic growth of 8.0%. GFL also repurchased 300,000 subordinate voting shares during the quarter under its normal course issuer bid.

Guidance raised again

GFL now expects full-year 2026 revenue of approximately $7.51 billion to $7.53 billion, up from its prior guidance of $7.32 billion to $7.34 billion issued earlier this year. 

Adjusted EBITDA guidance rose to approximately $2.29 billion from $2.23 billion, with full-year margin now expected to reach about 30.5%. This is a 10-basis-point increase from prior guidance despite what the company called incremental headwinds from diesel prices, the company reported. Adjusted free cash flow guidance climbed to approximately $900 million from $850 million.

The updated outlook assumes a USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.40 for the remainder of the year, up from the 1.36 rate used in GFL’s original guidance issued February 11. 

The hauler said the guidance reflects acquisitions completed as of July 1, net of divestitures, but excludes any impact from deals not yet closed.

“Based on the strength of the first half and our positive outlook for the remainder of the year, we are pleased to be able to increase our guidance top to bottom for the second time this year,” Pelosi said. “We now expect the following for the full year 2026: revenue of $7.52 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $2.29 billion, adjusted free cash flow of $900 million, inclusive of cash interest of $445 million and net capex spend of $850 million.”

Pelosi said diesel prices remain the biggest drag on the updated margin outlook.

 “Absent the run-up in diesel prices, full-year margin would have been more than 31%, more than a 100-basis-point increase over the prior year, despite headwinds from M&A and commodity prices,” he said. 

Recycled commodity pricing, by contrast, has become a tailwind. 

Pelosi said current market pricing is running $13 per ton above the second-quarter average, and if it holds, “Q3 pricing should be approximately 20% better than the prior year.”

Dovigi told investors in closing: “2026 is shaping up to be another year of industry-leading growth, and the setup for 2027 growth is even greater. Our business and growth prospects have never been better.”

Q2 2026 highlights:

  • Revenue: $1.95 billion, up 16.3%, from $1.68 billion in Q2 2025
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $591.2 million, up 14.8%, from $515.1 million in Q2 2025
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin: 30.4%, down from 30.7% in Q2 2025
  • Net loss from continuing operations: $162.6 million, compared with net income of $259.7 million in Q2 2025
  • Adjusted net income from continuing operations: $67.8 million, down from $101.5 million in Q2 2025
  • Adjusted free cash flow: $236.7 million, up from $137.1 million in Q2 2025
  • Organic growth: 6.4%, up from 4.6% in Q1 2026 (180 basis points sequential acceleration)
  • Net leverage: 4.0x, up from 3.4x at year-end 2025
Tags: Business & Finance
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Stefanie Valentic

Stefanie Valentic

Stefanie Valentic is an award-winning journalist who has covered the waste and recycling industry for more than five years. Throughout her career, she has led editorial teams and served as a keynote speaker, moderator and panelist at numerous trade shows and conferences.

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