Canada’s retaliatory tariffs of 15% to 50% on US goods took effect on Monday, in response to the Trump administration’s 50% tariffs on Canadian products.
The latest development in the ongoing tariff uncertainty of the past year – which has exacerbated existing struggles caused by competition with virgin resin and subdued demand – RPET markets are unlikely to see much effect, according to an ICIS analyst.
In July, after more than a year of global back-and-forth with a wide array of trade partners, US President Donald Trump announced 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, claiming “discriminatory treatment.” Subsequent talks collapsed Aug. 22 and the US implemented the tariffs on billions of dollars in Canadian products.
The US tariff levels on Canadian PET imports “are generally consistent with those that have been in place since the administration introduced reciprocal tariffs,” said Corbin Olson, senior analyst at commodity intelligence firm ICIS. “As a result, the market has largely already absorbed and adjusted to these measures. The recent developments have not significantly altered tariff levels in a way that would be expected to create another major market disruption.”
Even so, trade policy remains a “source of hesitation” for market players, Olson said.
The top 10 countries importing PET into the US – virgin PET as well as RPET flake and pellet, under the same tariff code – represent 85% of 2026 volumes through July, according to US International Trade Commission (ITC) data.
For the year to date, Canada is sixth on the list of PET importers, at 60,100 metric tons (mt) or 7% of total imports. Mexico is at the top of the list, providing about one-fifth of total volumes that entered the US.
An ICIS analysis indicated that Canadian PET is currently subject to a 16.5% total standard duty, plus a 13.6% anti-dumping duty (ADD). ADDs are not exempt under current free trade agreements, Olson said.
Olson noted that the US has free trade agreements with four of the top 10 PET importing countries, and exemptions may be made on a shipment-by-shipment basis according to compliance with stipulations on rules of origin.
In addition to the most recent tariffs, seven of the top 10 PET importers are among the economies subject to an ongoing Section 301 overcapacity investigation from the US Trade Representative (USTR). As yet, tariff rates and timing have not been announced.
Olson recommended that stakeholders consult their global trade compliance or customs department for final determinations on applicability, “as eligibility is very often dependent upon submitted (or lack of) paperwork and information is likely to evolve.”
Other material industries respond
When trade talks broke down in late August, trade associations representing paper products and glass packaging released statements.
American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) President and CEO Heidi Brock: “The US pulp, paper, packaging and tissue supply chain is deeply integrated across North America. New counter-tariffs on US goods, including pulp and paper products, risk adding uncertainty and cost for manufacturers, workers, customers and communities on both sides of the border.
“AF&PA supports trade policies that address unfair practices and strengthen US manufacturing. At the same time, escalating tariff disputes between the US and Canada will disrupt the cross-border supply chains that help mills and manufacturers invest, compete and deliver essential products people depend on every day.
“We urge both governments to return to the negotiating table and work toward solutions that address legitimate trade concerns without undermining the North American manufacturing base or the long-standing partnerships that support jobs and economic activity throughout the region.”
In its own statement, the Glass Packaging Institute (GPI) called for a “swift resolution to the US-Canada trade dispute and the return of US wine and spirits to Canadian store shelves.
“What affects US wine and spirits producers also affects the broader supply chain that supports them, including the glass container industry.”
