Three of the world’s largest PC and server manufacturers are signaling a concentrated wave of future IT retirements that will reshape ITAD, electronics recycling and secondary markets over the next three to seven years, according to Compliance Standards’ forthcoming “OEM Earnings Intelligence Brief” to be released later this week. The analysis synthesizes recent earnings calls from Dell Technologies, HP Inc. and Lenovo and maps their disclosures directly to end-of-life (EOL) equipment flows for PCs, servers and AI infrastructure.
The brief is based on financial data from the OEMs and comments from their senior management in their May earnings presentations, with all sector assessments and projections developed independently by Compliance Standards. It concludes that OEMs are simultaneously managing an aging installed base, an accelerated AI PC transition, and a historic build-out of AI server capacity, all under conditions of component inflation. For the EOL sector stakeholders, comprised of ITAD operators, recyclers and refurbishers, the combination adds up to “an unusually coherent, and consequential, picture” of incoming volume and value, the report notes.
Large, time-bounded PC retirement wave
Dell disclosed that roughly one-third of its installed PC base consists of devices four years or older, a cohort the brief identifies as a near-term enterprise retirement wave. HP, meanwhile, told investors that “roughly 30% of the installed base [is] still on Windows 10,” despite Microsoft’s October 2025 end-of-support date, reinforcing the scale of devices that will need to be refreshed or remediated in the near term. According to Compliance Standards, those two signals alone point to tens of millions of commercial PCs entering ITAD and recycling channels over the next 12–24 months, with elevated inbound volume likely through at least the third quarter of 2026.
At the same time, both HP and Lenovo are pushing aggressively into AI-enabled PCs and premium devices, which will accelerate displacement of conventional hardware. HP CFO Karen Parkhill said AI PC (AIPC) units represented 44% of PC shipments in the company’s second fiscal quarter, up from 35% the prior quarter, and guided to 60–70% of shipments next fiscal year and above 70% by 2028. Lenovo reported that premium PCs reached 50% of its mix in the fourth fiscal quarter, with shipments in that segment up 29% year-over-year. The brief argues that as AI-capable devices take over new deployments, non-AI commercial hardware will be pushed into secondary markets on an accelerated timetable, creating a time-bounded opportunity window for refurbishers.
HP and Lenovo unit volume cautions
HP guided to a high-teens PC unit TAM decline in the second half of calendar year 2026, attributing part of second-quarter strength to demand pulled forward ahead of component price increases. Lenovo’s Intelligent Devices Group president guided that PC units would be down year-over-year in the coming fiscal year, even as average unit revenue rises. Compliance Standards flags both signals as operationally relevant for ITAD operators, noting that the retirement wave may be concentrated in the first half of CY2026 and followed by a relative moderation as elevated prices temper replacement decisions in SMB and consumer segments.
Component inflation boosts residual values
Across all three OEMs, management highlighted tight supply and rising prices for DRAM, NAND and CPUs. Dell COO Jeffrey Clarke referred to “notable commodity constraints, particularly in DRAM and NAND,” and said the company is “repricing—it feels like every day,” while HP described taking steps to lock in memory and storage supply through long-term agreements. Compliance Standards connects those remarks directly to end-of-life economics, noting that higher new-build component costs tend to lift the recoverable value of memory- and storage-rich devices entering ITAD and recycling streams.
The brief argues that this environment favors ITAD and recycling operators who can test, harvest and remarket components, rather than those relying solely on bulk shredding and commodity-scrap pricing. With current commercial laptops and desktops shipping with more DRAM and NAND than similar form factors three years ago, “bulk shredding economics for this cohort are materially less favorable than selective harvesting,” the analysis states.
AI server build-out sets up dense future EOL wave
On the infrastructure side, the OEM disclosures point to a massive, longer-term server and AI hardware retirement cycle. Dell’s Infrastructure Solutions Group reported record quarterly revenue of $29.0 billion, including $16.1 billion in AI server revenue and $24.4 billion in AI server orders booked in a single quarter, with guidance calling for $60 billion in AI server revenue over the full fiscal year. Lenovo’s infrastructure unit reported a $21 billion AI server pipeline and more than 5,800 AI customer deployments. Dell COO Jeffrey Clarke also noted on the earnings call that the majority of the Dell server installed base remains on 14th-generation or older servers, a forward volume signal for ITAD operators as that cohort moves toward retirement over the next 12–36 months.
Compliance Standards projects that AI servers deployed during the 2025–2027 build-out will begin reaching end-of-life in significant volumes around 2029–2031. Because these systems are GPU-dense, often liquid-cooled and packed with high-value materials, the report argues that they will combine disassembly complexity, unsolved data destruction requirements, and liquid cooling infrastructure into a recycling and urban mining challenge the sector has not previously encountered at this scale. It also notes that existing data destruction frameworks were not written with GPU architectures and AI model storage in mind, suggesting a need for new, documented EOL protocols for AI infrastructure.
Print hardware as an underserved EOL stream
HP’s print segment results carry a separate set of signals for recyclers that the brief identifies as underserved relative to their volume. HP reported consumer print revenue down 10% year-over-year in the second fiscal quarter, with supplies revenue flat in constant currency. Parkhill noted rising resin costs tied to oil prices, a development Compliance Standards connects directly to improving recovery economics for plastics-intensive print hardware entering recycling channels. The brief flags print hardware as a persistent EOL stream with meaningful materials recovery potential that receives limited ITAD industry attention.
Shift toward subscription and OEM-controlled EOL
The brief also highlights growing interest among OEMs in subscription and as-a-service models that keep the vendors involved in device lifecycles beyond the initial sale. Dell Financial Services, HP’s Flex PC and All-In Plan, and Lenovo’s TruScale offering all aim to bundle hardware, software and services in consumption-based packages, often with clear end-of-term return or refresh provisions. Parkhill described HP’s All-In print subscription as providing “a simple frictionless experience for customers” while allowing HP to attach additional services and improve long-term profitability.
From an ITAD perspective, Compliance Standards sees these programs as structurally significant because they concentrate EOL decision-making and asset control with the OEMs and their designated partners. “Every enterprise device that enters a DFS, TruScale, or HP All-In program is a device that will not flow through the open ITAD market at end-of-life unless the ITAD operator is the designated EOL partner within that program,” the brief cautions.
Implications for EOL sector
The report lays out separate takeaways for ITAD operators, electronics recyclers, refurbishers and financial stakeholders. For ITAD firms, near-term priorities include modeling inbound PC volume against installed-base and Windows 10 data, tightening component-level valuation at intake, and pursuing OEM lifecycle program partnerships that can secure structured, contract-based volume. Electronics recyclers and urban mining companies are urged to pay close attention to DRAM and NAND content in retiring equipment, as well as to OEM commitments such as Lenovo’s use of post-consumer recycled materials in 100% of its PC products, which create demand for high-quality recovered plastics and metals.
For private equity and other investors, Compliance Standards positions the current cycle as a multi-year opportunity to back ITAD and recycling platforms that combine certified disposition, component and materials recovery, and OEM-aligned lifecycle services. The brief emphasizes that all financial figures and quotes it uses are sourced directly from Dell, HP and Lenovo’s earnings disclosures, while the sector assessments and projections “are the independent work product of Compliance Standards LLC and do not represent the views, guidance, or projections of Dell Technologies, HP Inc., or Lenovo Group.”
