First-person perspective: What’s next for the scrap metal industry?

This year business news headlines have been dominated by tariffs imposed on imports and their impact on a range of U.S. businesses and consumers. While much is up to debate, one thing is clear: The tariff environment will continue to be fluid in the months ahead, and the scrap metal recycling industry is not immune to its dynamics. Moreover, the industry’s scale and the role it plays in addressing environmental and supply chain challenges are not widely recognized.

The scrap metal industry in the U.S. is enormous, second only to the whole of the Asia-Pacific region in consumption and processing. The American Iron and Steel Institute reports that nearly 70 million tons of domestic steel is recycled annually to make new steel, and according to IBIS World, the U.S. scrap metal recycling industry in 2024 registered total revenue of $43.3 billion, with market size growth at a compound annual growth rate of 4.3% between 2019 and 2024.

Moreover, the western U.S. scrap metal recycling market alone accounts for nearly one-fourth (24.9%) of the national share, and the region is projected to register a CAGR of 5.6% from 2022 to 2032. With a long runway for growth projected, it is critical to understand the potential short- and long-term impacts tariffs will have on the scrap metal industry, especially if you are an operator in this vertical.

How could tariffs on steel and aluminum imports affect those forecasts? Much can be learned from the introduction of tariffs in 2018. Based on previous scenarios, tariffs will likely increase domestic demand for scrap metals as U.S. manufacturers seek local sources to mitigate the added costs of imported primary metals. There are several other factors to consider when looking at the potential impacts tariffs will have on this industry in both the short- and long-term.

Short-Term Benefits for U.S. Scrap Recyclers

Initially, tariffs on metals should help domestic recyclers by increasing demand for U.S. scrap, raising prices and profits. The domestic steel and aluminum industries will likely benefit from reduced competition from imports, which indirectly supports the recycling sector.

In the immediate term, the reintroduction of tariffs is likely to lead to an increase in U.S. steel prices. This is due to the reduced availability of imported steel, prompting domestic mills to raise prices to balance supply and demand.

Over the next three months, the impact on recyclable steel prices will depend on several factors:

• Supply chain adjustments: Domestic steel producers may ramp up production to meet demand and, hence, potentially stabilize prices.
• Market sentiment: If the market anticipates sustained tariffs, prices may continue to rise. Conversely, expectations of tariff removal could lead to price corrections.
• Global trade dynamics: The ebb and flow of responses from the current administration and other countries, such as retaliatory tariffs or trade agreements, will influence U.S. steel and aluminum prices. We are already seeing this as the European Union, China and Canada react to the U.S. administration’s tariff actions.

Long-Term Uncertainty Due to Global Trade Disruptions

The long-term impact of the tariffs will depend on several factors. If U.S. steel and aluminum production remains strong, scrap recyclers could continue to benefit. However, if demand weakens or if global trade disruptions persist, recyclers may face declining exports, increased market volatility and potential price declines.

Other factors include:

• Domestic production capacity: The ability of U.S. steel manufacturers to expand production will be crucial, and the announced tariffs come at a time when industrial production and capacity utilization of these metals have declined to unusually low levels. However, if this capacity is not enough, building new smelters or reopening closed plants is a time-intensive process and could take years.
• Market equilibrium: As domestic production adjusts, the market may reach a new equilibrium, with prices stabilizing based on the new supply and demand dynamics.
• Policy developments: Changes in trade policies, such as the removal or modification of tariffs, will directly affect steel prices.
• Costs and consolidation: In early April, global brokerage firms began to raise their projections for the likelihood the U.S. could enter a recession. If one were to materialize, the impact on the scrap metal industry will largely hinge on the duration. A prolonged downturn could sharply reduce demand, drive up costs and trigger consolidation — potentially favoring larger, well-capitalized scrap metal operators.

Navigating Uncertainty

Simply put: The market prefers stability and certainty. However, there are steps that scrap metal operators can take to approach planning when there is a high level of uncertainty ahead.

1. Don’t panic: Stay prudent and plan to adapt to the circumstances, but don’t overreact. In other words, business owners should take steps grounded in the facts.
2. Experienced leadership: Ensure there is a battle-tested team in place surrounded by trusted advisors. Businesses with strong, experienced leadership are well-equipped to navigate tariffs as well as other challenges and opportunities that will arise in 2025 and beyond.
3. Diversify: In any market, diversification is key, but now even more so. Companies are taking steps to further broaden their customer base and supply chains. This includes strategic acquisitions that provide flexibility, such as securing railroad access to U.S.-based steel mills to mitigate potential export challenges from tariffs. Regardless of market conditions, diversification must remain a priority because with the stroke of a pen, industry dynamics can shift, requiring companies to pivot quickly and implement plan B or C.
4. Enhance inventory management: The introduction of tariffs increases price volatility. The knee-jerk reaction is to stockpile inventory. However, such actions need to be taken with care. Diligent inventory management is key to prevent overexposure and maintain price margins. The more efficient companies are in managing their inventory, the better and less expensive it becomes ­— reducing the need for the use of other tools like hedging.

The tariffs first imposed on aluminum and steel back in 2018 had mixed effects on the U.S. scrap metal recycling industry. While they initially boosted domestic demand and prices for ferrous and non-ferrous scrap, they also disrupted global trade patterns and increased market volatility. We expect similar dynamics will be at play in 2025. In the short term, recyclers will potentially benefit from higher prices, but in the long run, retaliatory tariffs will shift global trade flows and potential oversupply issues could create challenges.

The ultimate impact of the reinstated tariffs will depend on the trajectory of U.S. steel and aluminum production, as well as ongoing trade policies and international market adjustments. To navigate these challenges, business leaders must stay strategic — keeping a level head, diversifying their customer base and supply chain and closely monitoring inventory levels to protect margins. It will not be easy. Companies that maintain optionality and remain flexible will be best positioned to thrive in an ever-evolving global landscape.

Craig Takeshige is a senior vice president and Orange County market leader at Umpqua Bank. He is a commercial banker with 30 years of experience serving the financing needs of the scrap metal industry.

Kevin Foley is a senior vice president and commercial & industrial relationship manager at Umpqua Bank. He is a commercial banker with 15 years of experience and deep expertise in manufacturing, distribution and commodity-based industries.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not imply endorsement by Resource Recycling, Inc. If you have a subject you wish to cover in an op-ed, please send a short proposal to [email protected] for consideration.